TL;DR: Most leading forecasts point to slower growth or a mild recession in 2026. Scenario planning gives HVACR distributors a way to prepare for that reality. The goal is not to predict the downturn’s depth, but to be ready for it. Good plans bend before they break. Economic Outlook for 2026 Forecasts from the IMF, Deloitte, OECD, and the University of Michigan … [Read more...] about What Happens When the Market Moves: Scenario Planning for HVACR Distributors
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Danfoss acquires Palladio Compressors
Danfoss’ announced their acquisition of Palladio Compressors today. This would seem to signal more than portfolio expansion—it plugs a real gap in the HVAC/R market. By bringing non-captive screw technology under its roof, Danfoss adds supply to a segment where options have been limited, while positioning itself to accelerate adoption of natural and low-GWP refrigerants. The … [Read more...] about Danfoss acquires Palladio Compressors
2026 HVACR Planning Season – Contractor Loyalty Programs are worth considering
As you go into planning season, and you are looking for programs in 2026 that can help you grow business in 2026. A Contractor loyalty program has to be one of the areas, I would look at as a distributor leader. I was fortunate to be involved and help lead 9 contractor loyalty programs as a distributor, and each and every time they delivered above market growth numbers. So, … [Read more...] about 2026 HVACR Planning Season – Contractor Loyalty Programs are worth considering
EPA Floats Refrigerant Rule Rollback: Five Years of Breathing Room or Just More Confusion?
The EPA has proposed a major revision to the Biden-era refrigerant transition rules, offering relief to contractors, distributors, and manufacturers who’ve been bracing for 2025 compliance deadlines. The move could push back enforcement in key sectors, giving the industry as much as five years to adapt — but it also raises new questions. When the 2023 Technology Transitions … [Read more...] about EPA Floats Refrigerant Rule Rollback: Five Years of Breathing Room or Just More Confusion?
Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026
Market share math only works if you define the market you are measuring against. TAM, SAM, and SOM are the three lenses that turn gut feel into something you can plan with. For HVACR distributors, iffy-definitions create false signals that can derail planning. This article breaks down how HVACR distributors calculate market share using TAM, SAM, and SOM. Market share … [Read more...] about Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026
AI Agents in Distribution: From Hype to Practical Impact
Distributors are hearing more about AI every day, but much of the conversation stays broad and abstract. This article looks at something more practical: how AI agents are already being used in distribution to handle routine tasks, free up people, and improve the customer experience. Recently, I had the chance to speak with Mohamed Ben Aribia, founder of Helixia, and watch … [Read more...] about AI Agents in Distribution: From Hype to Practical Impact
Market Share Math: How Distributors Can Sharpen 2026 Planning
Market share is the most cited, least understood metric for most HVAC distributors. With economic uncertainty hanging over 2026, sharper distribution planning is essential. Here is how to ground your growth targets in reality and avoid the blind spots competitors may be leaving wide open. Why Market Share Matters in 2026 This article kicks off a series we will be … [Read more...] about Market Share Math: How Distributors Can Sharpen 2026 Planning
AI for HVACR Reps
From a tech viewpoint, AI is what companies talk about. Distributors are implementing it or at least discussing it. Not much gets shared within the manufacturer environment but it is well in use. Reps have asked the question. Some have dappled. Few are advanced. Most are intrigued but lack expertise and/or are concerned about expense. The challenge for many reps is the … [Read more...] about AI for HVACR Reps
Learning from the Front Lines: Insights from Auer Steel’s BrewCast Series
At HVACR trends we have been following innovative channel leaders like Auer Steel and Heating Supply and their excellent outreach programs for the past year. Contractors know that the business is about more than equipment. Success depends on how well you engage homeowners, develop talent, and prepare your team for what is coming next. This fall, Auer Steel is curating … [Read more...] about Learning from the Front Lines: Insights from Auer Steel’s BrewCast Series
Volcanoes make noise. Glaciers shape markets: Bosch in HVAC
Volcanoes erupt. They grab attention, change landscapes overnight, and leave everyone scrambling to adapt. Glaciers, by contrast, move almost imperceptibly. Yet over time they carve valleys, redirect rivers, and permanently reshape the terrain. Bosch has chosen to act like a glacier in the U.S. HVAC market. Their recent $8 billion acquisition of Johnson Controls–Hitachi’s … [Read more...] about Volcanoes make noise. Glaciers shape markets: Bosch in HVAC
