TL;DR: Most leading forecasts point to slower growth or a mild recession in 2026. Scenario planning gives HVACR distributors a way to prepare for that reality. The goal is not to predict the downturn’s depth, but to be ready for it. Good plans bend before they break. Economic Outlook for 2026 Forecasts from the IMF, Deloitte, OECD, and the University of Michigan … [Read more...] about What Happens When the Market Moves: Scenario Planning for HVACR Distributors
Market Analysis
Danfoss acquires Palladio Compressors
Danfoss’ announced their acquisition of Palladio Compressors today. This would seem to signal more than portfolio expansion—it plugs a real gap in the HVAC/R market. By bringing non-captive screw technology under its roof, Danfoss adds supply to a segment where options have been limited, while positioning itself to accelerate adoption of natural and low-GWP refrigerants. The … [Read more...] about Danfoss acquires Palladio Compressors
2026 HVACR Planning Season – Contractor Loyalty Programs are worth considering
As you go into planning season, and you are looking for programs in 2026 that can help you grow business in 2026. A Contractor loyalty program has to be one of the areas, I would look at as a distributor leader. I was fortunate to be involved and help lead 9 contractor loyalty programs as a distributor, and each and every time they delivered above market growth numbers. So, … [Read more...] about 2026 HVACR Planning Season – Contractor Loyalty Programs are worth considering
EPA Floats Refrigerant Rule Rollback: Five Years of Breathing Room or Just More Confusion?
The EPA has proposed a major revision to the Biden-era refrigerant transition rules, offering relief to contractors, distributors, and manufacturers who’ve been bracing for 2025 compliance deadlines. The move could push back enforcement in key sectors, giving the industry as much as five years to adapt — but it also raises new questions. When the 2023 Technology Transitions … [Read more...] about EPA Floats Refrigerant Rule Rollback: Five Years of Breathing Room or Just More Confusion?
Show Me the Value: Why HR Needs Receipts
HR often sits in a strange space inside organizations. Employees are wary because they see HR as working for management, not for them. Leadership, meanwhile, gets frustrated when HR leaders say they want to be “strategic” but then spend their time bogged down in the tactical weeds. Over the years, I have worked closely with HR leaders in different contexts. Too often, I … [Read more...] about Show Me the Value: Why HR Needs Receipts
Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026
Market share math only works if you define the market you are measuring against. TAM, SAM, and SOM are the three lenses that turn gut feel into something you can plan with. For HVACR distributors, iffy-definitions create false signals that can derail planning. This article breaks down how HVACR distributors calculate market share using TAM, SAM, and SOM. Market share … [Read more...] about Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026
AI Agents in Distribution: From Hype to Practical Impact
Distributors are hearing more about AI every day, but much of the conversation stays broad and abstract. This article looks at something more practical: how AI agents are already being used in distribution to handle routine tasks, free up people, and improve the customer experience. Recently, I had the chance to speak with Mohamed Ben Aribia, founder of Helixia, and watch … [Read more...] about AI Agents in Distribution: From Hype to Practical Impact
