The HVAC Technician Shortage: What 2031 Could Look

Why the HVAC Technician Shortage Is Getting Worse

The HVAC technician shortage is not a future problem. It is already here, and its trajectory points somewhere the industry does not want to go. By 2031, if the pipeline does not change, the sector will be operating under serious strain: longer wait times, higher labor costs, slower technology adoption, and service markets that cannot meet demand. The demand side of the equation is healthy. Growing construction, aging infrastructure, and rising climate expectations all signal strong need for HVAC services. The supply side is the problem, and it is getting worse.

Why the HVAC Technician Shortage Is Getting Worse

Today’s HVAC workforce is aging rapidly. According to the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA), nearly 30% of current HVAC technicians are over the age of 55, and the rate of retirement is poised to accelerate over the next decade. At the same time, the influx of younger workers continues to lag, with vocational enrollment and apprenticeship numbers failing to keep pace with attrition.

If recruitment efforts remain stagnant, the HVAC industry could face a shortfall of more than 300,000 technicians by 2031, as projected by various workforce studies. The implications go far beyond vacant job postings. This deficit ripples through supply chains, service delivery, profitability, and customer satisfaction.

A Service Industry Strained to the Breaking Point

By 2031, failing to attract new talent will fundamentally change how HVAC businesses operate. The shortage will show up in ways that affect every part of the channel.

Longer Service Wait Times

Residential and commercial customers will experience dramatically longer wait times. What was once a same-day or next-day service call could stretch into weeks, especially during peak seasons like summer heat waves or winter cold snaps. Delays will not just frustrate customers. They will jeopardize health and safety for vulnerable populations who depend on reliable climate control.

Rising Service Costs

Scarcity drives price. With fewer qualified hands available, labor costs will skyrocket. Businesses will need to pay premium wages just to retain technicians, and those increases will inevitably be passed on to customers. Estimates suggest service rates could climb 40 to 60% above today’s averages by 2031, making affordable HVAC services unattainable for many middle- and lower-income households.

Safety and Quality Risks

Work that once required experienced technicians may increasingly be performed by underqualified staff or, in the worst cases, by consumers attempting DIY fixes. This will open the door to safety hazards, improper installations, and code violations. Insurance claims, warranty disputes, and regulatory fines will all rise, a cost borne by contractors and consumers alike.

Innovation Stalled: When Labor Shortage Slows Technology Adoption

While new HVAC technology, from smart controls and IoT systems to advanced heat pumps and hybrid electrification, is rapidly evolving, a technician shortage will slow adoption across the board.

Complex systems require skilled installers. Next-gen HVAC technologies demand higher levels of technical competency. Without a pipeline of trained technicians, many businesses will be unable to justify installing advanced systems. Training gaps will widen. Manufacturers will invest in product innovation, but not all will invest equally in technician education. Without a robust training infrastructure, new technology will stagnate on paper rather than being implemented in the field. As older equipment persists because there are not enough qualified technicians to support upgrades, the industry could see a fragmented market where legacy systems and cutting-edge products co-exist poorly, making diagnostics and repairs more complicated. In effect, technical progress will not accelerate. It will decouple from practical adoption.

Small Contractors Suffer the Most

Small and medium contractors will be disproportionately affected. Larger firms might absorb labor shortages by offering higher wages and benefits or by automating administrative work, but smaller shops will struggle. Many will pivot away from service calls altogether, focusing instead on maintenance contracts or routine preventive work that can be managed with fewer technicians. The result is a contraction in the service market and a widening competitive gap between large and small firms.

A Feedback Loop of Declining Interest

A grim reality of 2031 will be a self-reinforcing cycle. Technician shortages lead to burnout and high turnover among those already in the field. Poor work-life balance and chronic stress make the trade less attractive to newcomers. Fewer entrants worsen the shortage. Wages rise, but recruitment lags. Without meaningful intervention, negative perceptions of the industry will persist among younger workers who might otherwise build strong careers in HVAC.

Missed Economic Opportunity

Beyond the service industry pain points, the national economy stands to lose. The Bureau of Labor Statistics consistently ranks HVAC technicians among the fastest-growing job categories, with demand tied to both residential and commercial growth. Failure to fill these roles means construction slowdowns, delayed electrification and decarbonization goals, higher building operating costs, and reduced competitiveness for U.S. manufacturing. Communities that rely on the trades for economic mobility will see fewer pathways to stable, well-paying work, undermining the industry’s historical role as a gateway to middle-class employment.

If current trends continue unchecked, 2031 will not be a time of triumph for the HVAC industry. It will be a cautionary tale of opportunity lost. But that future is not inevitable. What stands between now and 2031 is what the industry does in the next few years.

Elevate the Trade’s Image

For too long, HVAC has been mischaracterized as low-skill labor. The field combines technical complexity, strong earning potential, and a critical role in the energy transition. Marketing campaigns, workforce ambassadors, and partnerships with school districts can reposition HVAC as a tech-centric, sustainable career worth pursuing.

Expand and Modernize Training

Training must be affordable or subsidized, integrated with high school and community college CTE programs, and aligned with emerging technologies including heat pumps, electrification, and smart systems. Apprenticeships and hybrid classroom-to-field models will be critical to building a durable pipeline.

Champion Diversity and Inclusion

The talent pipeline will widen only if recruitment reaches beyond traditional demographics. Women, minorities, and career-changers represent large, untapped potential. Programs that reduce barriers, including childcare support, flexible scheduling, and mentorship, can make HVAC a more inclusive field and expand the pool significantly.

Leverage Technology to Support Technicians

Remote diagnostics, AI-assisted troubleshooting, and modular system designs can reduce on-site labor intensity. But technology should support the workforce, not substitute for the work of building it.

2031 could be a time of progress in decarbonization, smart infrastructure, and resilient buildings, but only if the HVAC industry equips the people who make it work. Without a robust pipeline of new technicians, the future looks less like innovation and more like strain: overloaded systems, frustrated customers, burned-out technicians, and missed economic opportunity.

The HVAC industry has survived previous challenges by adapting, innovating, and embracing new skill sets. The next frontier, and perhaps the most important one, is people. Recruiting, training, and retaining the next generation of technicians is not a human-resources item on a checklist. It is the foundation upon which the industry’s future depends.

2031 does not have to be a cautionary tale. But if nothing changes, it will be.

---

If this aligns with what you are seeing in your market, I would like to compare notes.  CMG works with manufacturers, distributors, and rep firms who want clearer strategy, stronger channel performance, and better alignment across the field.  If you are exploring ways to strengthen your commercial approach, reach out and let’s talk through what you are trying to build.