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HVACR Trends

HVACR Trends

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HVACR distributors

Midyear Course Correction: “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth”

October 23, 2025 by Chuck Labow Leave a Comment

midyear planning for hvacr distributors is like two sailboats cutting through choppy blue water under a dramatic, cloud-filled sky, leaving zigzag wakes behind them — symbolizing adaptability and steady navigation through changing conditions.

TL; DR: To paraphrase the inestimable words of “Iron” Mike Tyson, plans rarely survive contact with the market.  Like a sailboat tacking into the wind, the best distributors keep course-correcting until they reach their goal. The best distributors do not throw them out when things change.  They adapt.  Midyear reviews turn assumptions into action by checking what the market … [Read more...] about Midyear Course Correction: “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth”

Mingledorff’s Caffeine and Coils Podcast: How an 86-Year-Old Brand Stays Fresh

October 22, 2025 by Chuck Labow Leave a Comment

Jenny Brown and Deanna Lassiter recording an episode of Caffeine & Coils, Mingledorff’s internal and customer-facing podcast.

Jenny Brown and Deanna Lassiter explain how Mingledorff's Caffeine and Coils became both a creative outlet and a living symbol of their transparency, innovation, and people-first culture. By Chuck Labow | HVACRtrends.com When Mingledorff's Caffeine and Coils first launched, it wasn’t just another company podcast—it was a natural continuation of something Mingledorff’s had … [Read more...] about Mingledorff’s Caffeine and Coils Podcast: How an 86-Year-Old Brand Stays Fresh

William Blair HVAC Survey 2025: Demand Cools, Repair Rises

October 21, 2025 by Chuck Labow Leave a Comment

Line chart showing William Blair HVAC Index and organic sales growth for Watsco, Lennox, and AAON, highlighting a 3% industry decline in Q3 2025.

The third quarter of 2025 has been a rough ride for the HVAC industry. According to the William Blair's 2025 HVAC Survey, distributors and manufacturers reported softening demand, persistent sticker shock, and an unusually cool summer—all combining to create what the firm called a “rough out there” environment. The William Blair HVAC Index fell 3% year over year, one of the … [Read more...] about William Blair HVAC Survey 2025: Demand Cools, Repair Rises

What Happens When the Market Moves: Scenario Planning for HVACR Distributors

October 9, 2025 by Chuck Labow Leave a Comment

Photorealistic image showing a man’s torso from chest to hips, gripping a wooden dowel with both hands and bending it to illustrate the concept of strength through flexibility — “bend, don’t break.”

TL;DR: Most leading forecasts point to slower growth or a mild recession in 2026.  Scenario planning gives HVACR distributors a way to prepare for that reality.  The goal is not to predict the downturn’s depth, but to be ready for it.  Good plans bend before they break. Economic Outlook for 2026 Forecasts from the IMF, Deloitte, OECD, and the University of Michigan … [Read more...] about What Happens When the Market Moves: Scenario Planning for HVACR Distributors

Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026

September 24, 2025 by Chuck Labow Leave a Comment

TAM SAM SOM funnel showing Total Addressable Market, Serviceable Available Market, and Serviceable Obtainable Market for HVACR distributors 2026.

Market share math only works if you define the market you are measuring against.  TAM, SAM, and SOM are the three lenses that turn gut feel into something you can plan with.  For HVACR distributors, iffy-definitions create false signals that can derail planning.  This article breaks down how HVACR distributors calculate market share using TAM, SAM, and SOM. Market share … [Read more...] about Sizing the Market: TAM, SAM, and SOM for HVACR Distributor Planning 2026

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Watsco Q4 2025 earnings showing record gross margins and technology platform investments alongside volume declines in HVAC distribution

Watsco Q4 Earnings Miss Masks a Bigger Story

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