Richard Boothman serves as North American Sales Director for Modine Manufacturing’s Heating Division, where he is responsible for commercial strategy, sales, channel relationships, and market development across the company’s heating vertical within the Climate Solutions portfolio. He has spent decades in HVAC, with experience spanning unitary equipment, engineered systems, and global manufacturing environments, giving him a practical view of how products, distribution, and end-market demand intersect. This conversation provides a clear view into the Modine market outlook 2026 and how manufacturer priorities are evolving.
Before turning to the market outlook, Richard offered some context on Modine’s roots and how the business has evolved.
Founded in 1916 by engineer Arthur Modine, the company began by solving a practical problem: tractor engines overheating in the Midwest. Modine’s early work on turbulent flow improved heat exchange and led to its first major success in vehicular heat transfer, a business that still represents a significant portion of the company today.
A decade later, Modine applied that same thinking to building heat, inventing the unit heater and earning a patent in 1926. Nearly a century later, that innovation remains central to the company’s identity. Today, Modine operates two primary segments: Performance Technologies, which serves vehicular and industrial heat transfer markets, and Climate Solutions, which encompasses heating, ventilation, indoor air quality, OEM coils, coolers, and data center cooling. Climate Solutions has recently grown to become the larger of the two, supported by a series of targeted acquisitions and continued investment in engineered HVAC applications.
That backdrop frames how he views the market heading into 2026.
Where are you seeing the strongest market pull heading into 2026?
Modine sees the market outlook 2026 shaped by data center growth, cold-weather demand, and channel realignment. For Modine overall, data centers remain the most significant growth engine.
The scale is difficult to overstate. A single project can require dozens of large chillers and hundreds of air handlers, often across multiple buildings. Demand continues to exceed production capacity across the industry.
Within Modine’s heating business, cold weather still matters. We saw a meaningful shift this season, with colder conditions arriving earlier than they have in recent years. That has driven strong order activity in our core markets.
Canada has also been top of mind, though for different reasons. Retaliatory tariffs created real complexity for us in a market that has historically been very strong. We had to make adjustments to maintain competitiveness while protecting the business. Taken together, these factors form the core of the Modine market outlook 2026 as demand concentrates around scale, reliability, and climate-driven extremes.
How much impact have tariffs had so far?
The impact from component tariffs has been manageable. We manufacture in the U.S. and rely heavily on domestic steel. Imported content in our units is minimal, limited to smaller components that we have largely mitigated.
The bigger issue has been uncertainty. Rules changed quickly, and that uncertainty was disruptive, similar in some ways to what many companies experienced during COVID. In Canada, certain tariff decisions were particularly challenging, especially where gas-fired products were impacted in ways that did not align with domestic manufacturing realities.
What shifted in 2025 in terms of customer priorities?
Consolidation continues to reshape the landscape. National accounts are growing, and we have invested directly in supporting them, including dedicated resources focused entirely on those relationships.
Modine’s size and operating discipline allow us to align well with larger customers. We are a publicly traded company with meaningful scale, and that resonates with national distributors who expect consistent programs, infrastructure, and execution.
How are manufacturer–distributor relationships evolving as expectations rise?
Training has become a major focus. Not traditional classroom training, but hands-on, practical education. We are seeing experienced talent retire and newer people enter the industry, often without deep technical backgrounds.
Our approach brings training directly to distributors. Contractors are invited in. Units are live-fired. Participants diagnose faults, adjust gas pressures, convert fuel types, and physically work on the equipment. It addresses a real skills gap and helps us get closer to the contractor, who ultimately decides what gets installed.
As a manufacturer, we are several steps removed from the end decision-maker. The rep, the distributor, and the contractor all play a role. Training gives us a meaningful way to add value without bypassing the channel.
How do you balance that without going around the distributor?
Everything runs through the distributor. They host the training and invite their contractors. We do not sell direct. Our model remains selective distribution, supported by professional reps.
We also offer authorized contractor programs, which help us understand who is installing our equipment and ensure they are properly supported. But the distributor remains central to how we go to market.
Which end-user segments matter most over the next 12–18 months?
Horticulture and greenhouse applications remain critical for us. It is a market where we invest heavily and where heating performance is mission-critical.
We are also seeing continued growth in warehousing and distribution facilities. Those projects align well with our product portfolio and continue to expand.
In many cases, we do not always know exactly where smaller unitary equipment ends up. Large engineered jobs are easier to track. Greenhouse distribution is more visible because of its specialization.
What has become more important in distributor partnerships?
Data. Accurate, accessible product information is essential. Contractors increasingly research and place orders online, often after hours. Printed catalogs have disappeared. Product images, technical details, selection tools, and service documentation all matter more than ever.
Distributors vary in how they want to handle this. Some rely heavily on their reps. Others want robust digital tools and direct access to data. We support both approaches.
Trust still underpins everything. Delivering on time, standing behind the product, helping resolve issues even when installation is part of the challenge. Many of our distributor relationships span decades. That history matters.
Where do you see the biggest openings and risks as AI, labor constraints, decarbonization, and consolidation continue to shape decisions?
AI is still early for us. Modine has begun investing at the enterprise level, but practical, day-to-day applications within HVAC remain limited so far.
Decarbonization felt more urgent two or three years ago, especially in markets considering gas restrictions. We developed heat pump-based solutions in response. Recently, that pressure appears to have eased somewhat, driven by regulatory changes and real-world performance limitations in colder climates.
Consolidation continues at a steady pace. Mergers and acquisitions are frequent, and manufacturers need the scale and discipline to match how larger customers operate.
How do electrification and heat pumps fit into your long-term thinking?
They will play a role, particularly in public and state-funded projects where policy mandates adoption. Cost and complexity remain significant hurdles, especially compared to gas-fired systems that are proven, reliable, and familiar.
From an engineering standpoint, gas remains highly effective at transferring heat. That reality is often overlooked. Heat pump solutions can work, but they introduce more moving parts, higher costs, and different performance characteristics.
Our responsibility is to have engineered solutions available while being honest about where each technology makes sense.
How do engineered HVAC solutions fit into modernization and building performance?
Engineered solutions expand the portfolio and allow us to support broader applications. They also pull through unitary products. Regulatory changes, refrigerant transitions, and controls requirements have added complexity, but they also reinforce the value of engineered expertise.
Efficiency matters, but reliability and serviceability still drive long-term satisfaction. Those fundamentals have not changed.
What industry assumption is most likely to be challenged in 2026?
The assumption that gas-fired equipment is disappearing. That narrative has softened. Recent data shows gas unit sales rebounding year over year, supported in part by colder weather returning earlier in the season.
Weather variability matters. Hot summers and cold winters drive demand, restocking, and investment across the channel. Stability helps no one in HVAC. Variability keeps the system moving.
Richard’s perspective reflects a steady, experience-driven view of where HVAC is headed. Rather than chasing headlines, he is focused on fundamentals: disciplined channel relationships, practical training, reliable engineering, and an honest assessment of where new technologies truly fit.
Viewed through that lens, the Modine market outlook 2026 is less about chasing trends and more about executing well on fundamentals that continue to matter. His comments underscore how scale, trust, and execution increasingly matter as consolidation, policy shifts, and customer expectations continue to reshape the market.
For manufacturers and distributors alike, the message is clear. Growth will favor those who invest in people, support the channel, and stay grounded in how equipment is actually selected, installed, and maintained in the field.
If this aligns with what you are seeing in your market, I would like to compare notes. CMG works with manufacturers, distributors, and rep firms who want clearer strategy, stronger channel performance, and better alignment across the field. If you are exploring ways to strengthen your commercial approach, reach out and let’s talk through what you are trying to build.
