Executive Summary
Six years of Voice of the Contractor data show a channel that is largely satisfied but increasingly pragmatic. Contractors value relationships and rate their primary suppliers positively, yet loyalty is conditional and share shifts quickly when availability, pricing, or execution fall short. Growth continues, multi-trade businesses are expanding, and distributors still hold an advantage, but leakage persists in predictable categories. The opportunity for distributors and manufacturers is not reinventing the relationship, but closing the performance gaps contractors consistently point to.
The Voice of the Contractor session at HARDI has become one of the most reliable reality checks in the HVAC channel. Drawing on six years of Voice of the Contractor data, Tim Fisher and Grace Helser focused less on short-term fluctuations and more on the patterns that consistently shape how contractors buy, evaluate suppliers, and allocate spend.
The message is not that contractors are unhappy. It is that expectations continue to rise, loyalty has become conditional, and execution matters more than intent.
Contractor Spending Continues to Grow, With Nonresidential Leading
Contractor purchases of HVACR products remain on a steady upward trajectory, with spending projected to grow roughly 6 percent in 2025 following average annual growth near 9 percent since 2020. Nonresidential work now accounts for approximately 58 percent of total spend, compared to 42 percent for residential.
This split matters. Nonresidential contractors tend to operate across multiple trades, manage more complex projects, and source from a wider range of suppliers. Residential contractors, while still more concentrated in their buying, are increasingly following the same path.
Wholesale Distribution Is Winning, But Exclusivity Is Gone
Wholesale distribution continues to gain share of wallet on a net basis while other channels lose ground. Independent distributors remain the primary supplier for most residential contractors and perform well across nonresidential segments.
At the same time, most contractors now buy from three or more HVAC suppliers, with larger firms often purchasing from five or more. Residential contractors still place a higher percentage of spend with a primary supplier, but that concentration weakens quickly when performance slips.
This is consistent with what we see across HT coverage as contractor buying behavior continues to evolve, particularly as manufacturers and distributors reassess who they are really building their strategies around.
Product Availability Still Anchors the Decision
For the sixth consecutive year, product availability ranks as the most important attribute contractors consider when selecting a distributor. Competitive pricing and fulfillment and delivery services follow closely behind.
What stands out in this year’s data is the gap between importance and performance. Competitive pricing and technical support show the largest negative gaps, meaning contractors care deeply about these attributes but feel suppliers underperform relative to expectations. Product availability, while rated reasonably well, still shows meaningful room for improvement.
In contrast, pre-sale and post-sale support are rare examples where perceived performance closely matches importance.
Relationships Are Strong, But They No Longer Protect Share
Contractors rate their relationships with supplier staff highly. Relationship quality ranks as the top-performing attribute overall, alongside branch location and credit terms. Order fulfillment and delivery also score well.
However, fewer than 20 percent of respondents rate these attributes as “very important” drivers of purchase decisions. Relationships matter, but they are not decisive when availability, pricing, or execution fall short.
This helps explain a central tension in the data. Just over half of contractors rate their primary supplier’s overall performance as good, with another third rating it excellent. Yet among contractors who rate performance as fair or poor, 71 percent report shifting more purchases to competitors.
Satisfaction does not equal loyalty.
Multi-Brand and Multi-Trade Are Reshaping Share of Wallet
Nearly 90 percent of residential contractors now offer two or more equipment brands. Larger contractors and multi-trade businesses are even more likely to do so, and those businesses place a smaller percentage of total orders with their primary distributor than they did five years ago.
Multi-trade contractors represent one of the clearest growth opportunities for distributors. Most already place roughly half of their HVAC purchases with a single supplier, yet many report that their primary HVAC distributor does not carry key plumbing, refrigeration, or commercial HVAC products.
Fixtures and appliances, valves and controls, and drainage and venting products represent the largest gaps. Contractors sourcing these categories elsewhere are significantly more likely to have reduced their share of spend with their primary HVAC supplier.
Where Leakage Continues to Occur
Controls, HVAC parts, IAQ products, refrigerants, hydronics, and plumbing-related items consistently rank among the most common categories purchased outside the primary HVAC channel. These are not fringe purchases. They are frequent, margin-rich transactions that shape daily buying behavior.
Once contractors leave the channel for these items, they often consolidate additional purchases at the same time. This is where the Voice of the Contractor data becomes especially useful. National averages explain what is happening broadly, but they do not explain why share shifts inside individual customer relationships.
What the Voice of the Contractor Data Really Shows
The Voice of the Contractor data paints a clear and consistent picture. Contractors value their suppliers. They appreciate strong relationships. They generally believe distributors are doing a good job.
But loyalty today is conditional. Contractors reward reliability, availability, and execution. When gaps appear, they respond pragmatically by spreading spend across more suppliers.
National benchmarks provide essential context, but averages hide local variation. Understanding how specific customers compare to these patterns is where insight turns into action.
This data is instructive. Building on industry research like HARDI’s Voice of the Contractor, CMG works with distributors and manufacturers on research and survey initiatives designed to surface actionable, situation-specific feedback.
